Bear market ahead? A 50% correction is a great way to get cryptos to new all-time highs (XLM, ADA, ETH, VET, and LTC).
I know. Everyone wants the moon. Everyone wants to know when Lambo. Everyone wants to know when we will see another 2013 or 2017. Neither of these scenarios will play out unless there is a bigger drop than what we saw on Tuesday (September 9, 2021). When I say a 50% correction is likely, I don’t mean a 50% correction from the all-time highs – I mean a 50% retracement from recent swing highs. Let’s look at what this scenario would look like for some major cryptocurrencies.
A 50% decline from the recent major swing high (0.439) would bring Stellar back to its previous swing low for 2021. That would mean a return to $ 0.22. $ 0.22 is a range of values that would likely qualify as the primary support zone as it is the upper part of the high volume node that will keep the VPOC (Volume Point-Of-Control) at US $ 0.17 in 2021. Dollar matters.
Cardano would have a pretty brutal drop when it comes to a 50% retracement compared to many of its peers. The 50% retracement would start from the new all-time value of $ 3.16 and suggest a decline to $ 1.57. It is very likely that traders would push it down towards the second highest volume node for 2021 at $ 1.30.
While it may seem a little unlikely, Ethereum’s 50% retracement would fall from its recent major swing high to $ 1,993. That’s slightly above the 2021 VPOC of $ 1,795. In the weeks of May 17th, June 21st and July 21st there were all phases in which the bears pushed Ethereum into the value range of $ 2,000 and held it. The tough level for bears will be the weekly Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen, which share a similar range of values near USD 2,910.
VeChain has a (very sloppy) head and shoulders pattern that forms on its weekly chart. If bulls are looking for a bearish fake-out or a bear trap, VeChain’s chart could offer this scenario. A 50% retracement from the recent major swing high at $ 0.807 would lower the price to $ 0.418. Depending on how you draw the head and shoulders pattern, the 50% retracement is a little below the neckline or directly above it. Either way, it would be a nice area to speculate for a long time and trap some bears expecting a clear collapse below the neckline.
Litecoin cannot move south up to 50%. The recent major swing high is at $ 232, but a 50% drop from that level would put Litecoin dangerously close to new 2021 lows. It is very likely that support will be found at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and the final high volume node at $ 127. I would consider this scenario ideal as it would form the beginning of a right shoulder on an inverse head and shoulders pattern.
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