Cryptocurrency technical evaluation, buy entries: Bitcoin (BTC), Cardano (ADA) – UK alternate charges
Above: Cardano (ADAUSD) chart
Well, Cardano eventually fell below the candlesticks – but it wasn’t because of price action, it was time. When the new daily candle appeared, the lagging span ‘slid’ to the right and under the candle above. At the time of this writing (1500 EST), Cardano is only down -2.36% for the day after falling -10.82%. The recovery from the daily low to the current value means an increase of + 9.50%! I am wary of large bear or bull movements here because of one important piece of information: Cardano trades within its daily kumo. There are two things about trading the kumo that lead me to avoid this chart for a while. First, it even spends so much time on the daily cloud. Almost all Ichimoku indicators are on top of each other and for some reason Cardano wants to sit in the worst spot on an Ichimoku chart. Second, I affectionately call the cloud ‘The Place Where Trading Accounts Go To Die’. The cloud represents volatility, indecision and whip saws. But it’s hard to ignore Cardano’s chart as it could easily be pushed over or under the cloud at any time. The close of this daily candle will be very important in determining the direction of trade for the rest of the week. Cardano is still heavily weighted with more downside pressure – but that’s the cryptocurrency market – so who knows. The main values I observe are 1.20 and then 0.84-0.94. For me to be 100% bullish again, the lagging span has to trade above the candlesticks again, which would mean it has to trade near $ 2.00 for the rest of the week, and I just don’t see it.
Above: Bitcoin (BTCUSD) chart
Oh man – Bitcoin is at a level where it could take a major breakdown from a flash crash. The key price level I am looking at is 32,250. This is at the very bottom of the current high volume node cluster in the volume profile. If this level cannot be maintained, Bitcoin will move into a heavy volume valley in the volume profile. There is a huge amount of free space between 32,000 and the next high volume node at 23,500. If you were a big player and could move the market, this would be your best chance to give the retail bag holders hope the price will go up again and flirt with the goal of 40,000 before you tear the carpet up and down to 32,250 and eventually returning to 24,000. Bitcoin had a technical breakout below the descending triangle, but it will be interesting to see how traders react towards the end of the trading day. The volume has certainly increased, but remains well below the volume from mid to late May. Right now, I wouldn’t be surprised if Bitcoin went higher to test the daily Kijun-Sen at 40,500 – this would put Bitcoin not just on the Kijun-Sen but on the caps of the current high volume node. There are many important levels to be seen here in the next few weeks!
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