The $ 55 highs from November have sold off aggressively in the weeks since, and the $ 23.4 mark has been tested multiple times in the past few weeks. Technically, Polkadot was within a buying zone, but all purchases with a medium to long-term horizon need to be carefully managed. Bitcoin could see an upswing, but the structure remained bearish and this could have a negative impact on Polkadot as well.
Based on the move from $ 10.37 to $ 55.09, the Fibonacci retracement levels (yellow) have been plotted. The 61.8% to 78.6% retracement levels are places where investors may want to buy an asset. DOT has seen some support at the 70.7% retracement level, but the USD 26.7 (cyan box) area has likely been flipped back to supply.
Any test of a range by price weakens the wall of bid or ask prices in the range. In early September, a large wick was turned down at $ 23.4. Similarly, buyers have moved in at these levels in the past few weeks, but a number of lower highs have been noted. This meant the sellers grew more confident as the bounces faded, a sign of the sellers’ strength.
It seemed likely that $ 23 could be tested again in the coming days or weeks, and it could fall further to $ 19.9.
The RSI has been below neutral 50 since it fell below $ 40 in early November, suggesting the onset of bearish momentum. For the past few weeks the CMF has also been below -0.05 to show the flow of capital out of the market.
The Directional Movement Index also showed that a significant downtrend was underway, although it was weakening. This could be because the price has fluctuated between $ 23.4 and $ 27.4 for the past few days.
Polkadot did not look healthy on the daily chart. Sometimes these are the types of charts that offer a high risk / reward buying opportunity. However, a risk averse investor can wait for the $ 32 mark to tip from resistance to support. Such a move could confirm that DOT was on its way to recovery. In the event the DOT falls below $ 23.4 in the coming weeks, there will likely be $ 19.9 and $ 16.7 support levels, respectively.