- XLM price impulsivity on bounces has been gone since early June as the digital asset rests on the lower trendline.
- Litecoin price is anchored in a symmetrical triangle below the union of the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) with the anchored VWAP.
- The Chiliz Prize is facing a quadfecta of resistance that may require a revolution to defeat.
XLM price has stubbornly resisted Bitcoin’s remarkable upswing, preferring to calmly move up along the bottom trendline of a symmetrical triangle. Litecoin price is locked in a symmetrical triangle continuation pattern below the massive resistance with no evidence of accumulation. The Chiliz Prize could not take advantage of the euphoria surrounding the start of the European Cup and preferred to tend sideways.
XLM price … we have a problem!
The XLM price is supported by the lower trendline of the symmetrical triangle and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the March 2020-May 2021 rally. However, the recovery has been limited and the daily volume is showing passive interest in participating despite the significant recovery of Bitcoin. With no daily close above the anchored volume-weighted average price (anchored VWAP) on November 23, 2020 at $ 0.368 and the 200-day SMA at $ 0.380, Stellar is poised to test the May lows.
To check this, a symmetrical triangle can be called a coil and usually forms as a continuation pattern during a trend. There are examples where symmetrical triangles mark significant trend reversals, but more often they mark the continuation of the current trend.
In the case of the XLM price, there is an established downtrend that precedes the symmetrical triangle. Stellar’s symmetrical triangle has four touches on the trend lines, two on the top and two on the bottom. The volume has contracted throughout the formation, which represents the calm before the storm.
A potential disadvantage for the Stellar Triangle is that the resolution is over 80% of the distance from the triangle’s start to the vertex, possibly suggesting that the resulting downward movement may be less than the projected 50% measured movement.
At the time of writing, XLM price is about 17% off testing the May 23rd low of $ 0.274. Based on the lack of accumulation in the triangle, Stellar’s proximity to the apex, the zero impulsivity from the bottom trendline, and the fierce resistance framed by the anchored VWAP and 200-day SMA, the chances are high XLM price will test the May 23 moving forward low.
It will take an XLM price to close below the lower trendline of the triangle and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $ 0.320 to confirm the negative outlook.
XLM / USD daily chart
The XLM price will need a daily close above the anchored VWAP and the 200-day SMA at $ 0.380 to undo the decidedly bearish outlook
Litecoin price could drop in quicksand
A cursory review of Litecoin price since early 2017 shows a boom-busted digital asset that went through a 10,000% rally in 2017, a 90% slump in December 2018, and then a 550% rally followed by an 80% rally % collapse and finally, the recent 1,500% advance. The 70% LTC correction in May should come as no surprise, but it may not mark the end of bankruptcy.
Litecoin price falls below the explicit resistance outlined by the upper trendline of a symmetrical triangle, the anchored VWAP of Nov. 16, 2020 at $ 182.98 and the 200-day SMA at $ 186.28. The lack of LTC impulsivity also adds to the bearish outlook as it has rebounded from the triangle’s lower trendline and reveals no commitment or emotion for the altcoin.
A daily close below the lower trendline at $ 158.35 would be the first confirmation that the next LTC defeat is about to begin. Another daily close below the June 8 low would be the final confirmation.
If Litecoin price hits the May 23rd low at $ 117.58 it would represent a 32% decrease from the price at the time of writing and likely set the firm low needed to start a new boom phase to begin the boom-bust cycle.
LTC / USD daily chart
Conversely, a daily close above the anchored VWAP and the 200-day SMA at $ 186.28 would trigger a rethinking of LTC’s bearish narrative.
Chiliz price consolidation is sowing doubts for CHZ enthusiasts
In the run-up to the kick-off of the European Cup, the Chiliz price shot up by 70% from the low of June 9th to the high of May 11th. The expansive rally caught the attention of the cryptocurrency market and remaining CHZ believers. Still, the altcoin has stumbled sideways for the past four days and failed to attract attention.
For weeks Chiliz price has been trading in an ascending triangle that started with the May 23rd low with $ 0.364 serving as upside resistance. The May 11 surge was accompanied by an opposition quadfecta that saw the anchored February 11 VWAP at $ 0.337, the falling April trendline at $ 0.351, the upper trendline of the ascending CHZ triangle, and the falling 50-day SMA included at $ 0.376.
Taking the opportunity presented by the European Cup, Chiliz price has shifted into a range that is between the falling April trendline and the merging of the 200-day SMA at $ 0.231 with the lower trendline of the ascending triangle.
Given the Chiliz price’s failed breakout attempt, a daily close below the 200-day SMA at $ 0.230 and the lower trendline of the triangle at $ 0.223 should draw market operator’s attention to the downside. A closing price below the June 8th low of USD 0.204 will confirm this and immediately result in a breach of the 19th century lows.
CHZ / USD daily chart
Until the Chiliz price can hit $ 0.364 it is difficult to imagine any other, then bearish, narrative.
The upswing in Bitcoin has slightly improved sentiment in the cryptocurrency market. Still, the technical outlook for many altcoins remains blurry as the imposition of resistance levels thwart attempts to break out of distinguishable chart patterns or formations. In the case of XLM, LTC and CHZ, the above technical observations are stacked in favor of bearish narratives, which are enhanced by precise trigger levels and clear invalidation points.
It is in the best interests of investors to use the defined resistance levels to short trade or wait for confirmation of a collapse. In any case, it is advisable to be nimble and disciplined.